Embraer Predicts Market Growth Through 2040

Company offers slightly optimistic projections; a “deceleration” compared to pre-COVID growth.

Thom Patterson

Monday, November 15, 2021 at 09:23 PM ET

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Overall global passenger volume will return to 2019 levels by 2024, the report said. Embraer

Key Takeaways:

Embraer's 20-year market report forecasts an optimistic return of global passenger volume to 2019 levels by 2024, with revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) projected to grow 3.3 percent annually until 2040.
The report highlights environment (fuel-efficient fleets, SAF), digitalization (remote work, decentralized populations), and regionalization (localized production) as key trends shaping future travel demand and aircraft needs.
A total global demand for 8,640 new jets and 2,260 turboprops (up to 150 seats), valued at $650 billion, is predicted by 2040, with Asia Pacific showing the strongest growth and demand for turboprops.

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Embraer’s (NYSE: ERJ) 20-year market report released Monday offered optimistic growth predictions in passenger revenue amid an aviation industry increasingly influenced by environmental, digital, and regional pressures.

The report, titled “20-year Market Outlook,” forecasts commercial aircraft deliveries through 2040 for new jets and turboprops with capacity up to 150 seats. Overall global passenger volume will return to 2019 levels by 2024, the report said.