As a flight instructor and former National Weather Service (NWS) research meteorologist, I’ve accepted that pilots like to rag on meteorologists for issuing bad forecasts. Even so, once I got the full backstory behind the pilot’s dissent for a majority of these cases, there was nothing inherently wrong with the forecast; it was how the pilot was trying to use the forecast that was often problematic. This is not to imply that meteorologists are always accurate in every forecast they issue, but pilots tend not to appreciate the hard limitations these forecasts demand.
A terminal aerodrome forecast, simply known as a TAF, is perhaps the most difficult forecast any meteorologist will ever make. Think about the challenge these forecasters face. A TAF is essentially an hour-by-hour forecast for conditions significant to aviation at an airport over the next 24 or 30 hours. This includes a forecast for details such as wind speed and direction, cloud coverage, ceiling height, prevailing visibility, and precipitation type.
