Aviation Safety

Risk-and the management thereof-is a diffuse concept, for it remains true that one mans risk is anothers Saturday afternoon recreation. But its also true that in order to place degrees of risk into categories remotely capable of being ranked requires as much information as it is possible to have. It applies to airplane systems, to stick and rudder skills and above all, to weather. Weather has always been the stickiest thorn in the FAAs concept of “all available information.” Even in the era of five-minute Nexrad loops and ever more sophisticated ice prediction products, theres occasionally a large disconnect between what is expected to happen and what is really happening. The advent of real-time weather data in the cockpit has reduced the surprise factor, but it hasnt eliminated it. And it cuts both ways-having lots of information thats just wrong can be worse than having no information, and it can lure you into a decision you might not have otherwise made.

Some pilots are, by nature, worriers. They worry about fuel, about engine failures, about hazardous weather, about midair collisions. Bluntly, pilots worry about things that can kill them. But do they worry about the right things? In other words, does the risk framework that most of us construct in our personal aviation universe reflect the reality of the serious killers in aircraft accidents? Our guess is that it does not, unless pilots are out there really sweating about stalls, spins and controlled flight into terrain. And even if the pilot population is wide awake about these hazards, it could do a better job of avoiding them. Stalls and CFIT (controlled flight into terrain) pop up as the two biggies in fatal accidents in general aviation to a degree that, frankly, startles us.

An overly long list of chores guaranteed a couple of things for flying from my home in Wichita, Kan., to Atlantic City, N.J., some years ago. First, the entire trip would be flown IMC and with instrument departures and arrivals at all three airports involved. Second, the timing of my departure meant not only was the first leg assured to be IMC and with ILS conditions, it was going to be mostly at night-with a night ILS. The questions running around in my head prompted me to undertake a higher-than-usual degree of preparation, starting by making a serious personal risk analysis. The questions didnt need 100-percent affirmative answers, but getting a negative response on more than one merited a longer look at the elements of the flight, in search of a way to turn one of the “no” responses into a “yes.” Three “no” responses would warrant a new decision on going, starting with “not going now.”

Its dusk as I taxi onto the runway. The winds were calm and weather unremarkable for this nice summer evening. As the takeoff roll begins, so do my checks. Gauges green. Ambient sounds were normal but just a little slower acceleration than usual-possibly due to the higher density altitude. Slight back pressure and she lifts off normally. Climbing through 300 feet agl with a safe airspeed, I retract the flaps. I keep the gear down since I havent reached a safe altitude, as my instructor taught me.

I know this will come as a shock to many of you, but its full-bore winter in North America. Being warmly ensconced in Florida for the past couple of years, I had forgotten about the seasons treachery. A recent early-December round-trip up the coast to D.C. brought back vivid memories, as well as a wide range of weather. Starting out, there were low ceilings, decent tailwinds and widespread convective activity over central Florida. The front-inspired rain was mostly moderate in intensity, and there were a few bumps, but there wasnt anything in it all to be overly concerned about.

For anyone who knows me, or has subscribed to this magazine for very long, it shouldnt come as a surprise to learn I occasionally go off on an ATC-related rant. Usually, such a rant involves nonsensical-to me, anyway-instructions, a lost clearance or worse. This column isnt a rant on ATC. It is, however, one on the pilots who make ATCs job more difficult than it has to be.

During a scheduled inspection, the wire bundle mount (p/n S2606-2) holding the flap motor wire harness was found detached from the rib in the right wing, allowing the wire bundle to chafe into the inspection panel support on the wing. The wire bundle had two wires which were chafed completely through the insulation, allowing contact with the inspection panel support. Inspecting these mounts and replacing them as needed is recommended.

Regarding your article about fuel totalizers, we should not assume they are always precise without periodically verifying their accuracy. On every other fill-up, I write down what my Shadin indicates as the number of gallons used and compare it to the number of gallons required to fill up the tanks. I have found my totalizer indicates about two percent more fuel in the tanks than actually exist, and therefore will have to have the Shadin adjusted accordingly.

At 1053 Eastern time, the airplane was substantially damaged during a forced landing. The commercial pilot and passenger were not injured; visual conditions prevailed. After the pilot topped the fuel tanks and performed a normal preflight, the aircraft took off and conducted a local flight, during which the pilot performed a power-on stall at an altitude of 2500 feet. Shortly after recovery, the engine began to “sputter and run rough.” The pilot applied carburetor heat, maintained best-glide airspeed and flew toward the nearest airport.

After landing about 30 minutes after sunset, the pilot taxied off the runway onto a perpendicular taxiway and was instructed by the ground controller to “taxi to the ramp.” The pilot observed the FBO directly in front of him and proceeded straight ahead, exiting the taxiway and continuing down a grassy slope between the ramp and taxiway. During the excursion from the taxiway, the propeller and the tail of the airplane struck the ground, resulting in substantial damage. The pilot did not report any mechanical malfunctions with the airplane.