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Honeywell Releases 2023 Business Aviation Market Forecast

The OEM projects that 8,500 new business jets, worth about $278 billion, will be delivered during the next ten years.

[Courtesy: Honeywell]
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Key Takeaways:

  • Honeywell forecasts 8,500 new business jet deliveries, valued at $278 billion, over the next decade, driven by strong operator optimism and an increased rate of fleet replacement/addition, with North America expected to receive the majority of aircraft.
  • The industry anticipates a strong surge in deliveries over the next three years as the supply chain recovers and backlogs are addressed, with large cabin and ultra-long-range aircraft projected to account for 69% of sales revenue.
  • Most business jet operators plan to increase efforts to reduce emissions, with future adoption of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) being key; however, significant government investment is deemed crucial to scale SAF production to meet rising demand.
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During its annual market report announcement on Sunday, Honeywell Aerospace has projected that 8,500 new business jets, worth about $278 billion, will be delivered during the next ten years—so says Javier Jimenez-Serrano, the firm’s strategy innovation manager. While the forecast remains unchanged from 2022, the total value of the new fleet has increased due to inflation and increasing list prices. Deliveries in 2024 will be 10 percent greater than in 2023 and sales revenue will increase 13 percent.

New business aircraft operators account for 500 of the sales from 2024 to 2033, increasing fleet
utilization by about 6 percent. Nineteen percent of existing business jet operators say that they will replace or add aircraft in their fleets in the next five years, accounting for more than 4,000 new aircraft deliveries.This is almost three times the replacement rate operators planned from 2010 to 2020. The purchasing expectation expectation also is 2 points higher than in 2022, reflecting operators’ optimism about the state of the industry and world economy. Almost two-thirds of respondents say they will fly as much in 2024 as they did in 2023. Twenty-nine percent say they will fly more hours next year. The overall size of the fleet will grow by 3 percent, according to Honeywell.

Fred George

Fred George has flown in the left seat of nearly every business jet produced in the last 30 years, encompassing more than 195 aircraft models total over his career. He reports on the business aviation industry for FLYING, returning to the senior editor position after first contributing to the magazine in the 1980s and 90s.

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