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Honeywell Releases 2023 Business Aviation Market Forecast

The OEM projects that 8,500 new business jets, worth about $278 billion, will be delivered during the next ten years.

[Courtesy: Honeywell]
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Key Takeaways:

  • Honeywell projects 8,500 new business jet deliveries worth $278 billion over the next decade, with a significant increase in deliveries and sales revenue expected in 2024, driven by operator optimism and a high replacement rate, primarily in North America.
  • A strong surge in deliveries is anticipated over the next three years as supply chains recover and backlogs are cleared, with large cabin and ultra-long-range aircraft expected to account for a substantial 69% of sales revenues.
  • Two-thirds of operators plan to increase efforts to reduce emissions, with long-term plans for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and carbon offsets, but current SAF production is critically low, necessitating major government investment to meet future demand and sustainability goals.
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During its annual market report announcement on Sunday, Honeywell Aerospace has projected that 8,500 new business jets, worth about $278 billion, will be delivered during the next ten years—so says Javier Jimenez-Serrano, the firm’s strategy innovation manager. While the forecast remains unchanged from 2022, the total value of the new fleet has increased due to inflation and increasing list prices. Deliveries in 2024 will be 10 percent greater than in 2023 and sales revenue will increase 13 percent.

New business aircraft operators account for 500 of the sales from 2024 to 2033, increasing fleet
utilization by about 6 percent. Nineteen percent of existing business jet operators say that they will replace or add aircraft in their fleets in the next five years, accounting for more than 4,000 new aircraft deliveries.This is almost three times the replacement rate operators planned from 2010 to 2020. The purchasing expectation expectation also is 2 points higher than in 2022, reflecting operators’ optimism about the state of the industry and world economy. Almost two-thirds of respondents say they will fly as much in 2024 as they did in 2023. Twenty-nine percent say they will fly more hours next year. The overall size of the fleet will grow by 3 percent, according to Honeywell.

Fred George

Fred George has flown in the left seat of nearly every business jet produced in the last 30 years, encompassing more than 195 aircraft models total over his career. He reports on the business aviation industry for FLYING, returning to the senior editor position after first contributing to the magazine in the 1980s and 90s.

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