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Winter on Watch

Broad-scale weather patterns impact the Eastern U.S. in the colder months.

As the large-scale weather patterns transition from the hurricane season, pilots' thoughts turn to colder events. [Adobe Stock]
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Key Takeaways:

  • The Southeastern U.S. transitions to a cold season marked by increased icing conditions, stronger frontal systems, and occasional, unpredictable thunderstorms.
  • Nor'easters are significant winter storms affecting the East Coast, categorized by their track (Miller Type A and B), bringing heavy precipitation, potential ice storms, and rapid intensification.
  • The Appalachian Mountains produce cold-season mountain waves, which can cause non-turbulent upwash/downwash affecting aircraft altitude, and occasionally lead to significant turbulence.
  • Pilots should be prepared for stronger crosswinds and be aware of late-season severe convection, while also benefiting from improved aircraft performance in cold, dense air.
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Southeast Start

As convective SIGMETs morph into G-AIRMETs for airframe ice, pilots flying in the Southeastern U.S., including the southern Appalachians, should expect a marked change from summertime weather as the upper-air pattern amplifies, the fall colors wane, and the cold season approaches. October and November are what meteorologists call transition months as the jetstream migrates south out of Canada.

With each passing month during the winter, the in-creasing upper-level flow reaches well into the Deep South. The freezing level transitions from the lower flight levels in September to near the surface by the early part of December over a large portion of the northern tier of states—as forecast discussions are dominated by uncertainty about the precipitation type that will reach the surface.

Scott Dennstaedt, Ph.D

Scott resides in Charlotte, North Carolina, and flies regularly throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. He is a CFI and former NWS meteorologist. Scott is the author of "The Skew-T log (p) and Me: A Primer for Pilots" and the founder of EZWxBrief.

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