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Winter on Watch

Broad-scale weather patterns impact the Eastern U.S. in the colder months.

As the large-scale weather patterns transition from the hurricane season, pilots' thoughts turn to colder events. [Adobe Stock]
Gemini Sparkle

Key Takeaways:

  • The Southeastern U.S. and Appalachians transition to a cold season (Oct-Nov), bringing amplified upper-air patterns, a southward-migrating jetstream, and increased risks of wintry precipitation, icing, and potent frontal systems, with convection still possible.
  • Nor'easters, peaking from October to April, are significant winter events for the eastern U.S., with Miller Type A and B tracks delivering severe weather such as heavy snow, ice storms (via cold-air damming), and torrential rain.
  • The Appalachian Mountains frequently generate significant mountain wave activity from October to May, typically non-turbulent but causing upwash/downwash that affects altitude, under conditions of strong perpendicular winds and a stable layer aloft.
  • While cold season flying offers benefits like clear visibility and improved aircraft performance from dense air, pilots must be prepared for stronger surface crosswinds and remain vigilant for severe convection and convective icing that persist into spring.
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Southeast Start

As convective SIGMETs morph into G-AIRMETs for airframe ice, pilots flying in the Southeastern U.S., including the southern Appalachians, should expect a marked change from summertime weather as the upper-air pattern amplifies, the fall colors wane, and the cold season approaches. October and November are what meteorologists call transition months as the jetstream migrates south out of Canada.

With each passing month during the winter, the in-creasing upper-level flow reaches well into the Deep South. The freezing level transitions from the lower flight levels in September to near the surface by the early part of December over a large portion of the northern tier of states—as forecast discussions are dominated by uncertainty about the precipitation type that will reach the surface.

Scott Dennstaedt, Ph.D

Scott resides in Charlotte, North Carolina, and flies regularly throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. He is a CFI and former NWS meteorologist. Scott is the author of "The Skew-T log (p) and Me: A Primer for Pilots" and the founder of EZWxBrief.

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