Question: I am a relatively new pilot. I recently read about something called a forecast discussion that could be useful for preflight planning. Can you tell me more about this and how I can access it online?
Answer: Since I introduced the area forecast discussions (AFDs) to the general aviation community a couple of decades ago, this has become a common resource for pilots to review before making operational decisions as it relates to weather. Just to clear up any initial confusion, the area forecast discussion is not a discussion describing the legacy aviation area forecast (FA) that was retired back in October 2017. The AFD is written by forecasters located at each of the local weather forecast offices (WFOs) scattered throughout the U.S. The same forecaster at the WFO that issues the terminal aerodrome forecast (TAFs) for their county warning area (CWA) is also responsible, in part, for issuing the corresponding AFD. The CWA defines the geographic “area” they are discussing. Shown below are the boundaries of the CWAs for the U.S. and its territories.
The AFD is not a two-way conversation. However, it is a vehicle that the forecaster can use to document the technical reasoning behind the forecast they just issued. In other words, it’s a way for a pilot to know what the forecaster is thinking about the current trends in the forecast. Most important, this is the method the forecaster can use to quantify their uncertainty. It allows them to let the reader know what could go wrong or describe alternate scenarios. I’ve read dozens of errant terminal forecasts over the years; however, there have been very few forecast discussions that didn’t somehow confront the potential of a busted forecast before it happened. I tell all of my one-on-one online students that if you are not reading the AFDs and only looking at the TAFs, you are potentially missing out on half the forecast guidance.
