Summary: Risk In The Red

There was a demonstrably high probability this flight would end tragically. If we assess honestly all the risks identified, along with their likelihood (probability) and severity (consequences), its clear that mitigation was needed to reduce these high risk levels.

Key Takeaways:

• The flight carried a demonstrably high probability of a tragic outcome due to multiple unmitigated high-risk factors.
• Key high-risk categories included the non-instrument rated pilot's lack of proficiency, an aircraft ill-equipped for icing or without an autopilot, hazardous night instrument conditions, and subtle external pressures.
• Each identified risk significantly increased the likelihood of an in-flight loss of control (I-LOC) and required mitigation, which was likely neglected partly due to a lack of proper risk management training.

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