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Is the Shift in Tornado Alley Related to Climate Change?

From year to year there may be a stark contrast in where severe weather strikes, especially thunderstorms that produce tornadoes.

The airport in London, Kentucky, is heavily damaged by tornado. [Shutterstock]
Gemini Sparkle

Key Takeaways:

  • Anthropogenic climate change is driving an eastward expansion of tornado-prone regions, moving beyond the traditional Tornado Alley into the Deep South and areas like the lower Mississippi Valley, Ozarks, mid-South, and Tennessee Valley.
  • This expansion leads to an increased frequency of supercell thunderstorms and consequently heightened exposure and vulnerability for populations in these newly affected eastern regions.
  • Residents in these expanded risk zones are advised to remain weather-aware and utilize resources from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), including convective outlooks, probabilistic forecasts, watches, and warnings.
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Question: It seems there have been more significant severe weather events that include tornadoes happening in the Deep South, especially in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama rather than in the traditional location of Tornado Alley. Is this driven by climate change?  

Answer: The short answer is yes. Tornado Alley has had a bad reputation over the last couple of decades, however. Although there has never been an official designation of where Tornado Alley is located, it is the area that is roughly approximated by the central and southern Plains from Nebraska to north-central Texas. 

There has been some debate that Tornado Alley has been shifting to the east over the last couple of decades. But it is more likely that Tornado Alley isn’t shifting but rather expanding to the east. 

Scott Dennstaedt, Ph.D

Scott resides in Charlotte, North Carolina, and flies regularly throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. He is a CFI and former NWS meteorologist. Scott is the author of "The Skew-T log (p) and Me: A Primer for Pilots" and the founder of EZWxBrief.

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