Last year I read in a major aviation publication that lifting off in zero-zero conditions was one of the riskiest and dumbest decisions in all of flying. In late October 2014, I attended the annual convention of a major flying club, where I heard basically that same conversation and conclusion. If I had any hair on my shiny bald head, I would pull it out in frustration.

Properly managing risk is essential to successfully pursuing life’s more exciting adventures. Activities such as scuba diving, downhill skiing, motorcycling, mountaineering and, of course, flying, all entail elements of risk which we must consider and manage if the thrills we seek are to be experienced more than once. But risk management often is poorly understood: While most people believe themselves to be prudent, the reality is large risks are often ignored and minor dangers grossly exaggerated. In general aviation, our inability to assess risk properly is evidenced by the number of weather-related accidents consistently gracing NTSB logs, even in the face of widely available near-real-time meteorological data on the ground and in the cockpit.

Students of introductory biology learn a basic lesson about sensory perception in a quirky behavior found in certain amphibians that has become common lore. By now we all know that if a frog is placed in hot water, he will immediately jump out to safety. However, if the frog is placed in cool water that is gently heated to boiling, the frog does not perceive the gradual rise in temperature or the impending danger. Likewise, when a pilot is presented with a problem or emergency that is an obvious attention-getter, he or she will react quickly to solve the immediate threat-a frog leaping from scalding water.