Who's Looking Matters

Recently, a friend who flies out of Houston Hobby (KHOU) shared something thats bothered him for some time. Just seven miles east of Hobby is Ellington Field (KEFD), a joint-use military/civilian airport. Both airports issue TAFs. Hobbys TAFs come from the NWS and Ellingtons are issued by the military. Interestingly, sometimes there is a great disparity between the forecasts. Do they each have their own biases? Are they looking through different glasses? Its like asking two witnesses what they see in an accident that hasnt happened yet.

Editorial Staff

Monday, March 07, 2016 at 12:00 AM ET

Verified

Key Takeaways:

Civilian (NWS) and military Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) for nearby locations often show significant disparities due to differences in their format, included elements, and underlying forecasting philosophies.
NWS TAFs adhere to a general ICAO-compliant format, using elements like FM, TEMPO, and PROB, with visibility in statute miles.
Military TAFs are not ICAO compliant and include unique elements such as BECMG, visibility in meters, QNH, wind shear, specific icing and turbulence codes, and forecast temperatures.
The main reason for the forecast differences lies in forecaster bias: NWS forecasters, serving the public and airlines, may lean towards an optimistic outlook, while military forecasters prioritize a "brutally honest" or even pessimistic view to prepare crews for worst-case conditions.

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Police-officer friends often share frustration they have piecing together an accident from testimony of the participants and the witnesses. Everyone has their own biases and perspective.

Recently, a friend who flies out of Houston Hobby (KHOU) shared something that’s bothered him for some time. Just seven miles east of Hobby is Ellington Field (KEFD), a joint-use military/civilian airport. Both airports issue TAFs. Hobby’s TAFs come from the NWS and Ellington’s are issued by the military. Interestingly, sometimes there is a great disparity between the forecasts. Do they each have their own biases? Are they looking through different glasses? It’s like asking two witnesses what they see in an accident that hasn’t happened yet.