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Update: What Would a Recession Mean for Aviation?

As talk increases about an economic downturn, two economists weigh in on possible impacts for the industry.

Demand for air travel is up, but how would a recession affect things? [File photo: Adobe Stock]
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Key Takeaways:

  • The Federal Reserve is attempting a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, using interest rate hikes to combat 41-year-high inflation driven by strong post-pandemic demand and global supply constraints.
  • This strategy is proving "very challenging" as it risks increasing business costs and unemployment, with economists now estimating a high probability (52-80%) of a recession.
  • The aviation industry faces varied impacts: commercial airlines currently benefit from strong demand despite pilot shortages, but rising costs threaten business aviation and flight schools.
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Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, is not a pilot, but he started talking like one when the economy began to nosedive earlier this year. 

Specifically, Powell said he would try to “land the plane softly,” and that “plane” is the U.S. economy. It’s the biggest economy in the world, and with more than 329 million passengers on board, a lot is at stake because unless he sticks that landing, the effects—and an economic ground stop—could be felt worldwide. 

Michael Wildes

Michael Wildes holds a master’s degree in Logistics & Supply Chain Management, and a bachelor’s degree in Aeronautical Science, both from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. Previously, he worked at the university’s flight department as a Flight Check Airman, Assistant Training Manager, and Quality Assurance Mentor. He holds MEI, CFI & CFII ratings. Follow Michael on Twitter @Captainwildes.

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