Predicting Future IFR

Sometimes the standard forecasts just arent enough. The area forecast (FA) and terminal forecasts (TAFs) are fine for anticipating the weather for the next day or so, but they simply dont extend out far enough in the future to tell you if IFR conditions might mess with your plans three days down the road.

Editorial Staff

Monday, August 04, 2014 at 12:00 AM ET

Verified

Key Takeaways:

Standard weather forecasts like TAFs and FAs are insufficient for anticipating IFR conditions more than a day or two in advance, lacking long-range specificity for ceiling and visibility.
Model Output Statistics (MOS) provides critical long-range (up to three days) site-specific and graphical categorical forecasts for ceiling height and visibility, including VFR, MVFR, IFR, LIFR, and VLIFR.
For comprehensive long-range flight planning, pilots should integrate MOS guidance (especially graphical representations) with prog charts and Area Forecast Discussions (AFD) to understand widespread weather events and local phenomena like Cold Air Damming.
MOS charts offer the distinct advantage of showing Very Low IFR (VLIFR) conditions (ceilings less than 200 feet or visibility less than 1/2 statute mile), which is crucial for safety and operational limits but often not distinguished in other online sources.

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Getting real utility out of your aircraft requires confidence you can get home after several days away. Here’s how to see LIFR coming days in advance.
Sometimes the standard forecasts just aren’t enough. The area forecast (FA) and terminal forecasts (TAFs) are fine for anticipating the weather for the next day or so, but they simply don’t extend out far enough in the future to tell you if IFR conditions might mess with your plans three days down the road.