First it was the World War II pilots retiring en masse. Then the Vietnam-era group. Though warnings of impending pilot shortages have come and gone, actual hiring numbers have never seemed to coincide with the predictions of large-scale retirements. But a group of aviation advocacy associations and businesses has asked the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to explore “a confluence of factors” that they say could lead to a real shortfall in pilots in the near future. Aircraft technicians could also be in short supply, says the group.
The request, directed to the House subcommittee on aviation, calls the prospect of the impending shortages “potentially devastating” not only to aviation, but to the overall economic recovery. Some factors in predicting a shortage include: runout from the 2007 extension of airline pilots’ retirement age to 65 from 60; current cutbacks in military pilot training; the new law requiring all airline pilots to have an ATP rating (with its requirement of additional logged hours); and an overall dearth of new student starts.
