Forecast Models

Today’s weather forecasting makes use of mathematical models. Let’s dig into some of the more common ones to understand what they’re telling us.

Tim Vasquez

Tuesday, June 11, 2024 at 08:00 AM ET

Verified

NOAA runs its top models like the GFS and NAM on this supercomputer outside Washington DC. (Photo: General Dynamics)

Key Takeaways:

Modern aviation weather forecasting heavily relies on sophisticated computer models (e.g., GFS, NAM, WRF) that have evolved to provide high-resolution data; understanding these models is crucial for pilots to interpret forecasts effectively.
Pilots should utilize observed data (satellite, radar) for immediate "nowcasting" (first 2-3 hours) and then transition to forecast model guidance for longer-term predictions, as human forecasters excel initially while models become more reliable for extended periods.
Always use reputable weather sources that clearly identify the specific model and its run cycle, and be aware that models can still fail in rapidly changing or small-scale weather situations, necessitating critical evaluation and comparison with current observations.

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Back in the good old days of flying when the old timers visited a Flight Service Station, the weather briefer built the forecast on a vast amount of observed data: radar summaries, weather depiction charts, PIREPs, and so forth. Computer models were viewed with a lot of suspicion and their use was limited mostly to winds aloft. Even in the early 1990s when I started at the forecast counter, we had old timers who talked derisively about the model charts and rolled their eyes when we referred to them.

The landscape is quite different today. Much of the forecasting process is built on computer models. It isn’t a requirement to understand models to stay safe in the air. But here at IFR Magazine we try to keep our focus on the cutting edge and staying informed and aware. Having an understanding of models gives you some idea of what weather briefers are working with. And since many flight-briefing maps are even built directly on model data, understanding how this data originates gives you a definite advantage in the same way as being computer-literate is essential to an aviation career. Let’s explore this rapidly-changing field and show you how to make the best use of this data.