Register

Forecast Models

Today’s weather forecasting makes use of mathematical models. Let’s dig into some of the more common ones to understand what they’re telling us.

NOAA runs its top models like the GFS and NAM on this supercomputer outside Washington DC. (Photo: General Dynamics)
Gemini Sparkle

Key Takeaways:

  • Modern aviation weather forecasting is predominantly built on sophisticated computer models (NWP), which have evolved from early concepts to today's high-resolution, mesoscale-capable systems like NAM, GFS, and HRRR.
  • Pilots should understand the differences between model types (global for long-range, regional/high-resolution for short-range detail) and choose them based on the forecast duration and specific weather phenomena.
  • For immediate weather (0-3 hours), observed data (e.g., satellite, radar) offers greater reliability than model forecasts, but models become more dependable for predictions extending beyond this initial "nowcasting" period.
  • It is crucial to use reputable weather sources that clearly name the model and its run cycle, avoid vague or low-resolution graphics, and always cross-reference model output with current observations, particularly in dynamic or severe weather conditions.
See a mistake? Contact us.

Back in the good old days of flying when the old timers visited a Flight Service Station, the weather briefer built the forecast on a vast amount of observed data: radar summaries, weather depiction charts, PIREPs, and so forth. Computer models were viewed with a lot of suspicion and their use was limited mostly to winds aloft. Even in the early 1990s when I started at the forecast counter, we had old timers who talked derisively about the model charts and rolled their eyes when we referred to them.

The landscape is quite different today. Much of the forecasting process is built on computer models. It isn’t a requirement to understand models to stay safe in the air. But here at IFR Magazine we try to keep our focus on the cutting edge and staying informed and aware. Having an understanding of models gives you some idea of what weather briefers are working with. And since many flight-briefing maps are even built directly on model data, understanding how this data originates gives you a definite advantage in the same way as being computer-literate is essential to an aviation career. Let’s explore this rapidly-changing field and show you how to make the best use of this data.

Ready to Sell Your Aircraft?

List your airplane on AircraftForSale.com and reach qualified buyers.

List Your Aircraft
AircraftForSale Logo | FLYING Logo
Pilot in aircraft
Sign-up for newsletters & special offers!

Get the latest stories & special offers delivered directly to your inbox.

SUBSCRIBE