“What’s it doing now?” If you haven’t said or thought it in the cockpit, you’ve almost certainly heard it from someone else. The question often has to do with new technology in the cockpit or automation not doing what you think it should. With more and more advanced systems—particularly with regards to navigation—expectation bias is a problem that can easily cause pilot deviations, or worse. Screens and automated systems are only one aspect of flying where expectation bias can bite you. It can rear its ugly head nearly any time you fly, whether commercial or GA, IFR or VFR.
Expectation Bias Can Cause Incidents—or Worse
Key Takeaways:
- Expectation bias, the belief that one knows what will happen without preparing for changes, is a critical aviation hazard that affects all pilots, leading to serious errors and accidents.
- This bias manifests in diverse scenarios, including runway confusion, misjudging traffic, unexpected weather changes, complex ATC clearances, and autopilot mismanagement.
- To mitigate expectation bias, pilots must adopt a "trust, but verify" mindset, diligently cross-checking all critical information such as runways, clearances, charts, NOTAMs, and automation settings, while also consistently preparing for unforecast weather, equipment failures, and missed approaches.
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