“What’s it doing now?” If you haven’t said or thought it in the cockpit, you’ve almost certainly heard it from someone else. The question often has to do with new technology in the cockpit or automation not doing what you think it should. With more and more advanced systems—particularly with regards to navigation—expectation bias is a problem that can easily cause pilot deviations, or worse. Screens and automated systems are only one aspect of flying where expectation bias can bite you. It can rear its ugly head nearly any time you fly, whether commercial or GA, IFR or VFR.
Expectation Bias Can Cause Incidents—or Worse
Key Takeaways:
- Expectation bias, the belief that pilots know what will happen without preparing for changes, is a critical safety issue in aviation, contributing to errors with new technology, automation, ATC clearances, and environmental factors like weather.
- To counteract this, pilots must adopt a "trust, but verify" approach, meticulously checking critical items such as runway assignments, ATC instructions, chart details, and autopilot modes rather than assuming correctness.
- Pilots should always anticipate the unexpected, preparing for contingencies like unforecast weather, equipment failures, or the necessity of a missed approach/go-around, and be flexible and willing to ask for help or more time when plans change.
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