“What’s it doing now?” If you haven’t said or thought it in the cockpit, you’ve almost certainly heard it from someone else. The question often has to do with new technology in the cockpit or automation not doing what you think it should. With more and more advanced systems—particularly with regards to navigation—expectation bias is a problem that can easily cause pilot deviations, or worse. Screens and automated systems are only one aspect of flying where expectation bias can bite you. It can rear its ugly head nearly any time you fly, whether commercial or GA, IFR or VFR.
Expectation Bias Can Cause Incidents—or Worse
Key Takeaways:
- Expectation bias, the belief that you know what will happen without preparing for changes, is a significant aviation risk that can lead to pilot deviations, incidents, or tragic accidents across all flight phases.
- The article illustrates this danger with real-world examples, including runway confusion (Comair Flight 5191), unexpected weather, ATC instruction surprises, and automation mismanagement.
- To mitigate expectation bias, pilots must actively "Trust, But Verify" by meticulously checking critical information (runways, clearances, charts, automation), anticipating dynamic conditions, and always preparing for contingencies like equipment failures or missed approaches.
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