“What’s it doing now?” If you haven’t said or thought it in the cockpit, you’ve almost certainly heard it from someone else. The question often has to do with new technology in the cockpit or automation not doing what you think it should. With more and more advanced systems—particularly with regards to navigation—expectation bias is a problem that can easily cause pilot deviations, or worse. Screens and automated systems are only one aspect of flying where expectation bias can bite you. It can rear its ugly head nearly any time you fly, whether commercial or GA, IFR or VFR.
Expectation Bias Can Cause Incidents—or Worse
Key Takeaways:
- Expectation bias, the belief that anticipated events will occur without deviation, is a major aviation safety risk, capable of affecting all pilots and leading to critical errors such as runway misidentification or automation mismanagement.
- To mitigate expectation bias, pilots must actively "trust, but verify" all aspects of flight, including cross-checking runways, ATC clearances, chart information (and NOTAMs), weather forecasts, and autopilot modes.
- Pilots should proactively plan for worst-case scenarios like unexpected weather, equipment failures, or missed approaches, maintaining flexibility and being prepared to ask for clarification or delaying vectors when actual conditions deviate from expectations.
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