Better than TAF?

A dmittedly, Im an unabashed geek, getting my jollies running statistical tests querying the actual NTSB relational database and publishing my aviation safety research in journals using scientific mumbo-jumbo-the majority (if not all) of which would put any insomniac to sleep in a heartbeat. That said Im also an active general aviation pilot. Here, Ill don both hats as I cover a hot-off-the-press scientific paper published in the Atmosphere journal, translating from highfalutin language into laymans English for the benefit of the general aviation pilot population.

dboyd

Monday, June 03, 2019 at 12:00 AM ET

Verified

Key Takeaways:

The Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) is an automated, hourly, airport-specific 25-hour weather forecast tool, covering more general aviation airports than TAFs.
A recent study found LAMP significantly more accurate than TAFs in forecasting ceiling conditions (both IFR-or-better versus Low IFR, and VFR versus non-VFR), and it was less prone to "crying wolf" (false alarms).
LAMP's superior accuracy is attributed to its hourly updates and its use of airport-specific algorithms trained on historical data, which differentiates it from human-generated TAFs that cover broader areas.
General aviation pilots are encouraged to integrate LAMP into their preflight weather briefings as a supplementary tool for more conservative decision-making, accessible via NWS websites or popular EFB apps.

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A dmittedly, I’m an unabashed geek, getting my jollies running statistical tests querying the actual NTSB relational database and publishing my aviation safety research in journals using scientific mumbo-jumbo—the majority (if not all) of which would put any insomniac to sleep in a heartbeat. That said I’m also an active general aviation pilot. Here, I’ll don both hats as I cover a hot-off-the-press scientific paper published in the Atmosphere journal, “translating” from highfalutin language into layman’s English for the benefit of the general aviation pilot population.

These pages have held two articles on the Model Output Statistics computerized forecasts—”Hidden Weather Tool” in March 2018, and “More MOS” in June 2018. The study I’ll translate was undertaken by Embry Riddle University faculty on the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) tool. This forecast tool was adopted by the National Weather Service in the late 1990s with improvements in 2012.