Better than TAF?

A dmittedly, Im an unabashed geek, getting my jollies running statistical tests querying the actual NTSB relational database and publishing my aviation safety research in journals using scientific mumbo-jumbo-the majority (if not all) of which would put any insomniac to sleep in a heartbeat. That said Im also an active general aviation pilot. Here, Ill don both hats as I cover a hot-off-the-press scientific paper published in the Atmosphere journal, translating from highfalutin language into laymans English for the benefit of the general aviation pilot population.

dboyd

Monday, June 03, 2019 at 12:00 AM ET

Verified

Key Takeaways:

The Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) is an automated, hourly, airport-specific 25-hour weather forecast tool, available for significantly more general aviation airports than traditional TAFs.
A recent study found LAMP to be substantially more accurate than TAFs in forecasting ceiling conditions, both for distinguishing Low IFR from IFR-or-better and for identifying VFR conditions, while also producing fewer "false alarms."
LAMP's improved accuracy is due to its hourly updates and its use of historical ASOS data for each airport to develop location-specific predictive algorithms.
Although the FAA currently advises using LAMP only to supplement TAFs, general aviation pilots are encouraged to integrate this more accurate tool into their preflight planning for enhanced safety.

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A dmittedly, I’m an unabashed geek, getting my jollies running statistical tests querying the actual NTSB relational database and publishing my aviation safety research in journals using scientific mumbo-jumbo—the majority (if not all) of which would put any insomniac to sleep in a heartbeat. That said I’m also an active general aviation pilot. Here, I’ll don both hats as I cover a hot-off-the-press scientific paper published in the Atmosphere journal, “translating” from highfalutin language into layman’s English for the benefit of the general aviation pilot population.

These pages have held two articles on the Model Output Statistics computerized forecasts—”Hidden Weather Tool” in March 2018, and “More MOS” in June 2018. The study I’ll translate was undertaken by Embry Riddle University faculty on the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) tool. This forecast tool was adopted by the National Weather Service in the late 1990s with improvements in 2012.