Predicting Future IFR

Sometimes the standard forecasts just arent enough. The area forecast (FA) and terminal forecasts (TAFs) are fine for anticipating the weather for the next day or so, but they simply dont extend out far enough in the future to tell you if IFR conditions might mess with your plans three days down the road.

Editorial Staff

Monday, August 04, 2014 at 12:00 AM ET

Verified

Key Takeaways:

Standard aviation forecasts (TAFs, FAs, prog charts) often lack the necessary long-range (3+ days) detail on ceilings and visibility required for confident multi-day flight planning.
Model Output Statistics (MOS) provides critical, site-specific forecasts for ceiling and visibility up to three days in advance, addressing the limitations of traditional forecasts.
For accurate long-range planning, pilots should integrate graphical MOS guidance with prog charts and Area Forecast Discussions (AFD) to anticipate widespread low IFR events and understand complex weather phenomena like Cold Air Damming.
MOS charts uniquely offer the distinction of Very Low IFR (VLIFR) conditions (ceilings less than 200 ft and/or visibility less than 1/2 statute mile), a crucial safety threshold not typically provided by other online sources.

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Getting real utility out of your aircraft requires confidence you can get home after several days away. Here’s how to see LIFR coming days in advance.
Sometimes the standard forecasts just aren’t enough. The area forecast (FA) and terminal forecasts (TAFs) are fine for anticipating the weather for the next day or so, but they simply don’t extend out far enough in the future to tell you if IFR conditions might mess with your plans three days down the road.