Predicting Future IFR

Sometimes the standard forecasts just arent enough. The area forecast (FA) and terminal forecasts (TAFs) are fine for anticipating the weather for the next day or so, but they simply dont extend out far enough in the future to tell you if IFR conditions might mess with your plans three days down the road.

Editorial Staff

Monday, August 04, 2014 at 12:00 AM ET

Verified

Key Takeaways:

Standard long-range aviation forecasts like TAFs, FAs, and general prog charts are insufficient for predicting specific low IFR conditions (ceiling and visibility) beyond one to two days.
Model Output Statistics (MOS), especially the Global Forecast System (GFS) MOS (MAV), offers crucial graphical categorical forecasts for ceiling height and visibility up to three days in advance.
Pilots should integrate MOS guidance with synoptic prog charts and Area Forecast Discussions (AFD) for a comprehensive long-range forecast, helping to anticipate widespread low IFR events, including the critical VLIFR category, for confident flight planning.

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Getting real utility out of your aircraft requires confidence you can get home after several days away. Here’s how to see LIFR coming days in advance.
Sometimes the standard forecasts just aren’t enough. The area forecast (FA) and terminal forecasts (TAFs) are fine for anticipating the weather for the next day or so, but they simply don’t extend out far enough in the future to tell you if IFR conditions might mess with your plans three days down the road.