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Nowcasting

Canceling an IFR plan is not always as simple as just saying the magic words. Illustration by Tim Barker
Gemini Sparkle

Key Takeaways:

  • Nowcasting, a short-term weather forecast for the next few hours, is crucial for pilots and can be performed using both traditional and modern meteorological techniques.
  • Effective "poor man's" nowcasting involves direct visual observation of the sky (understanding cloud forms and their processes) and extrapolation of observed weather changes like storm movement or front arrival.
  • Modern nowcasting relies on interpreting data from various sources, including high-resolution satellite imagery (visible, infrared, multispectral), real-time surface METAR data (identifying gusts and convergence), and radar (composite reflectivity for storms, wind profiles).
  • Advanced mesoscale models, such as the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), have become essential tools, providing detailed hour-by-hour forecasts for larger-scale weather features relevant to aviation.
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Perhaps you’ve heard the term “nowcasting.” The American Meteorological Society defines this word as “a short-term weather forecast, generally for the next few hours.” Pilots from all backgrounds are likely to recognize the immense value of this topic. In this article, we’ll talk about some down-to-earth techniques for how to accomplish nowcasting, without a lot of complexity and jargon.

It’s not entirely clear where exactly the term “nowcast” originated. But it began appearing in meteorological literature during the 1960s. New satellite systems, modern radar networks, and improved data communications led to renewed interest in the concept during the following decade. The growth of severe thunderstorm research and the development of NEXRAD in the 1980s and high-profile events such as the Olympic Games in Atlanta carved out nowcasting as its own special branch of meteorology.

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