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If X, Then Y

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Key Takeaways:

  • The article advocates for a simplified approach to Aeronautical Decision-Making (ADM), proposing it as an "if/then" programming instruction where pilots pre-determine responses to potential adverse events.
  • Through personal flight experiences, the author illustrates how anticipating contingencies, such as fuel shortages or adverse weather, and having pre-planned alternatives (Plan B or C) enables effective decision-making.
  • Effective ADM is presented as proactive risk management, emphasizing the importance of obtaining situational awareness, processing information, deciding, acting, and continuously monitoring outcomes to control risks rather than leaving them to chance.
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A lot of ink and pixels have been spilled over the years to discuss, explore and define what is called aeronautical decision-making, or ADM. The overall topic has its own chapter in the FAA’s Pilot’s Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge (PHAK), a rather dated Advisory Circular—AC 60-22, “Aeronautical Decision Making”—and a series of FAA FAASTeam courses accessible on the faasafety.gov web site. Those all are useful tools, especially for primary students or those looking to move up the education, experience and certification ladders. As with much of the FAA’s approach to risk management, they all seem to try teaching ADM by applying subjective solutions to a dynamic, objective environment.

That’s not an altogether bad thing, but the tools and acronyms employed have gotten a bit dated, just like that AC on ADM from 1991. Along the way, the general aviation accident record hasn’t improved as much as it should, as much as industry and the agency would like, or as much as the recent revolutions in avionics and airframe design might have promised.

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