Winter Forecasts

Lets start with the basics. In the cool season the North Pole is pointed away from the sun. As the polar regions lose solar heating and the days shorten, the atmosphere cools significantly, and we see a huge semi-permanent polar air mass covering much of Canada and northern Russia. Parts of it break off regularly as frontal systems and polar highs. The large expansion of the cold air mass boots the jet stream out of Canada, pushing it down into the United States.

Tim Vasquez

Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 12:00 AM ET

Verified

Key Takeaways:

Winter brings significant atmospheric changes including a dominant polar air mass, a southerly-shifted jet stream (polar and subtropical/Pineapple Express), and landmass-driven pressure systems, creating dynamic and often severe weather.
Icing is a major winter hazard, with different types (clear, rime, and dangerous Supercooled Large Droplets) forming in specific conditions like supercooled water, deep clouds, precipitation, and frontal systems, necessitating comprehensive pre-flight analysis including icing potential charts.
Winter also features heightened mechanical and clear-air turbulence due to increased wind speeds, shear, and instability; pilots must augment often-limited model forecasts with a strong meteorological understanding and utilize all available tools to anticipate rapidly changing conditions.

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In WX SMARTS, rather than teaching weather safety, we put you at the forecast counter and immerse you in the preparation of TAFs, area forecasts, and advisories. In addition to knowledge gained, this allows you to select the tricks and techniques applying most to your flying. With November approaching, it’s a good time to review what changes we can expect.

Cooling Things Down

Let’s start with the basics. In the cool season the North Pole is pointed away from the sun. As the polar regions lose solar heating and the days shorten, the atmosphere cools significantly, and we see a huge semi-permanent polar air mass covering much of Canada and northern Russia. Parts of it break off regularly as frontal systems and polar highs. The large expansion of the cold air mass boots the jet stream out of Canada, pushing it down into the United States.