Malcom S. Harned had a distinguished career in aerospace. He led development of the supersonic ramjet at General Electric, directed the Air Force’s nuclear-jet-engine program, managed development of a turbine helicopter at Hughes, and—after a stint at Gates Learjet—oversaw the development of the Conquest and Citation as president and chief operating officer of the Cessna Aircraft Co.
Looking Into the Aviation Future
We look through the glass and what do we see?
Key Takeaways:
- Aviation experts and visionaries, including Malcom S. Harned, Burt Rutan, and the author Peter Garrison, consistently over-predicted the speed and radicalness of future changes in aviation technology and adoption.
- While some forecasts, like the use of composites and digital electronics in cockpits, were accurate, many others—such as widespread personal aircraft, novel configurations, or rapid space tourism—were largely incorrect or far too optimistic in their timelines.
- The article suggests that optimistic forecasters often underestimate practical constraints like market demand, cost, regulatory hurdles, and the true impact of unforeseen technological developments (e.g., smartphone computing power) that significantly shape aviation's evolution.
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