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Nowcasting

Canceling an IFR plan is not always as simple as just saying the magic words. Illustration by Tim Barker
Gemini Sparkle

Key Takeaways:

  • Nowcasting is a vital short-term weather forecast (next few hours) for pilots, employing both traditional and modern techniques to anticipate immediate atmospheric changes.
  • Effective nowcasting utilizes "poor man's" techniques such as extrapolation of observed changes and detailed visual assessment of sky conditions, including identifying cloud types and their associated processes.
  • Modern nowcasting relies heavily on technological tools like high-resolution satellite imagery, real-time METAR surface data (for wind gusts and convergence patterns), radar (for precipitation and wind profiles), and advanced mesoscale models like HRRR.
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Perhaps you’ve heard the term “nowcasting.” The American Meteorological Society defines this word as “a short-term weather forecast, generally for the next few hours.” Pilots from all backgrounds are likely to recognize the immense value of this topic. In this article, we’ll talk about some down-to-earth techniques for how to accomplish nowcasting, without a lot of complexity and jargon.

It’s not entirely clear where exactly the term “nowcast” originated. But it began appearing in meteorological literature during the 1960s. New satellite systems, modern radar networks, and improved data communications led to renewed interest in the concept during the following decade. The growth of severe thunderstorm research and the development of NEXRAD in the 1980s and high-profile events such as the Olympic Games in Atlanta carved out nowcasting as its own special branch of meteorology.

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