Hurricane Warning

Although hurricanes are easily avoidable since they usually move to the front of the national news cycle, its good to have a working knowledge of them. One day you may find yourself caught in outer spiral bands as you try to move your plane out of danger, or your area may be the new target of a hurricane that deviates unexpectedly. Or perhaps you simply find yourself in the Caribbean in the late summer months with erratic Internet access-possibly a fortunate situation.

Key Takeaways:

• The U.S. is projected to face a busy tropical weather season, with 6-8 named hurricanes expected (three major), peaking in September due to favorable conditions like the shutdown of the El Nino pattern.
• Tropical cyclones, including hurricanes, are defined by their tropical origins and are fueled by warm ocean waters, requiring five key ingredients: a pre-existing disturbance, Coriolis force, sea surface temperatures of at least 26.5°C, weak vertical wind shear, and an upper-level outflow mechanism.
• An approaching hurricane presents a progressive series of signs, from distant long sea swells and high cirrus fields to barometer drops, shifting winds, and the characteristic heavy rains and high winds of the inner spiral bands and eyewall, culminating in the calm of the eye.
• Forecasting hurricane tracks and intensity remains challenging but is supported by advanced dynamic and statistical models (e.g., GFS, ECMWF) and tools for self-tracking via satellite and radar, with the ultimate advice being to maintain distance and utilize diverse information sources for safety.

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