The long-term outlook for general aviation through 2038 is “stable to optimistic,” according to the FAA’s recently announced Aerospace Forecast 2018-2038. Specifically, the FAA estimates the general aviation fleet will increase from “213,050 aircraft in 2017 to 214,090 in 2038, growing an average of 0.0 percent a year.” The flat growth results as expected steady growth in turbine aircraft meets similar declines in fixed-wing piston aircraft.
The agency believes the relatively small number of turbine aircraft will grow at an average of 2.0 percent annually over the forecast’s 20 years, versus the projected 0.9 percent decline in the greater number of fixed-wing-pistons. General aviation hours flown, meanwhile, are forecast to increase from 25.4 million in 2017 to 30.2 million in 2038, an average annual growth rate of 0.8 percent per year.
