Common Threads In Weather Accidents

In my view, there are four basic categories of aviation weather threats: low clouds and reduced visibility; turbulence and low-level wind shear; airframe ice; and thunderstorms (which may contain the three other hazards in one nasty package). When evaluating weather for a planned flight, I look at observations and forecasts with each of these specific hazards in mind: what is are the chances Ill encounter each threat and how bad will each be? How close to (or beyond) the limitations of the regulations, my capabilities and the airplanes performance would I be if I attempt the flight?

Tom Turner

Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 12:00 AM ET

Verified

Weather can be hazardous to airplanes. The real weather threat, however, is the way pilots approach weather-related go/no-go decisions.

Key Takeaways:

Effective aviation weather decision-making requires objective evaluation of all categorized threats—visible and invisible—against pilot capabilities, aircraft performance, and regulations, with a focus on exposure reduction.
Common factors in weather-related accidents include pilots underestimating threats, overestimating their own or the aircraft's capabilities, taking shortcuts, and succumbing to external expectations or cognitive illusions.
Pilots frequently disregard their intuition or fail to plan adequately for all flights, even short ones, highlighting that the real weather threat often lies in how pilots approach go/no-go decisions.

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In my view, there are four basic categories of aviation weather threats: low clouds and reduced visibility; turbulence and low-level wind shear; airframe ice; and thunderstorms (which may contain the three other hazards in one nasty package). When evaluating weather for a planned flight, I look at observations and forecasts with each of these specific hazards in mind: what is are the chances I’ll encounter each threat and how bad will each be? How close to (or beyond) the limitations of the regulations, my capabilities and the airplane’s performance would I be if I attempt the flight?

Just as important, what can I do to reduce my exposure to the threat? Is it within my capabilities, or should I avoid it altogether? I’m not just looking at the weather briefing results; I’m quantifying each report and measuring each observation and forecast against objective go/no-go criteria. While developing a presentation on this overall topic, I looked for reports of weather-related aircraft accidents in my local area to use as examples. As I narrowed my search, I realized that these accidents contain some common threads. Recognizing the things these accidents share better enable you to make an objective go/no-go decision.