Brief Like a Weather Pro

Step into an aviation forecaster’s shoes and see how it’s done.

Tim Vasquez

Thursday, June 26, 2025 at 08:00 AM ET

Verified

Edited By:

Travis Tingle

The 300 millibar chart is used for hemispheric work at jet stream level. [Courtesy: AWIPS-II / Tim Vasquez]

Key Takeaways:

The article details a systematic "forecast funnel" approach to aviation weather forecasting, starting with large-scale atmospheric processes and progressively detailing down to surface conditions.
Forecasters begin by analyzing upper tropospheric charts (e.g., 300 millibar) to identify major features such as the polar vortex, subtropical ridge, and jet stream, which establish the fundamental weather framework.
Understanding upper-air features like troughs (associated with bad weather), ridges (good weather), and the location of jet stream maximums are critical for predicting weather developments.
Surface charts are then examined in conjunction with upper-air dynamics, using isobars and thickness lines to identify pressure systems and air masses, ultimately predicting specific weather events and their impact on aviation.

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Since I began my column over 10 years ago in IFR Magazine, I’ve strived to write as though you’re with me in the weather operations center.

During most of my Air Force career, I worked as an aviation forecaster. For many years, this was a constant succession of four days on, three days off, with rotating shifts. After driving to work, we would begin a shift-change briefing. If this was in the morning, the entire weather station would participate. If it was evening, the events would be more relaxed, with just me and the outgoing forecaster reviewing things.