Brief Like a Weather Pro

Step into an aviation forecaster’s shoes and see how it’s done.

Tim Vasquez

Thursday, June 26, 2025 at 08:00 AM ET

Verified

Edited By:

Travis Tingle

The 300 millibar chart is used for hemispheric work at jet stream level. [Courtesy: AWIPS-II / Tim Vasquez]

Key Takeaways:

Aviation weather forecasting employs a "forecast funnel" methodology, starting with analysis of large-scale upper-air patterns (e.g., polar vortex, jet stream) before progressing to smaller, more localized features.
Upper-air charts, such as the 300 millibar chart, are crucial for identifying broad atmospheric conditions, including the jet stream's location and intensity, as well as troughs (associated with bad weather) and ridges (indicating good weather).
Surface charts are then used to integrate pressure systems, fronts, and air masses (delineated by thickness lines), connecting upper-air dynamics with surface conditions to predict specific phenomena like cold air damming and the redevelopment of lows that can lead to severe weather.

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Since I began my column over 10 years ago in IFR Magazine, I’ve strived to write as though you’re with me in the weather operations center.

During most of my Air Force career, I worked as an aviation forecaster. For many years, this was a constant succession of four days on, three days off, with rotating shifts. After driving to work, we would begin a shift-change briefing. If this was in the morning, the entire weather station would participate. If it was evening, the events would be more relaxed, with just me and the outgoing forecaster reviewing things.