Brief Like a Weather Pro

Step into an aviation forecaster’s shoes and see how it’s done.

Tim Vasquez

Thursday, June 26, 2025 at 08:00 AM ET

Verified

Edited By:

Travis Tingle

The 300 millibar chart is used for hemispheric work at jet stream level. [Courtesy: AWIPS-II / Tim Vasquez]

Key Takeaways:

The article details a "forecast funnel" approach to aviation weather forecasting, which systematically begins with large-scale upper-air dynamics and progressively focuses on smaller, surface-level details.
Forecasters start by analyzing upper tropospheric charts (e.g., 300 millibar) to understand major features like the polar vortex, subtropical ridge, jet stream, and large troughs/ridges, using isoheights to identify temperature gradients and strong wind zones.
The process then moves to 500 millibar charts for smaller "short waves" and culminates with surface charts, which reveal air masses, fronts, and their crucial interaction with upper-level dynamics to predict specific weather events.

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Since I began my column over 10 years ago in IFR Magazine, I’ve strived to write as though you’re with me in the weather operations center.

During most of my Air Force career, I worked as an aviation forecaster. For many years, this was a constant succession of four days on, three days off, with rotating shifts. After driving to work, we would begin a shift-change briefing. If this was in the morning, the entire weather station would participate. If it was evening, the events would be more relaxed, with just me and the outgoing forecaster reviewing things.