Black Swan Lessons

It was once believed that all swans were white. No one considered the possibility of black swans until a Dutch explorer discovered them in Australia in 1697. That is the nature of a Black Swan event: Its rare, has an extreme impact and is predictable in retrospect.

Fred Simonds

Sunday, October 08, 2017 at 12:00 AM ET

Verified

Key Takeaways:

Successful management of aviation "Black Swan" events, exemplified by Qantas Flight 32, depends on prioritizing flying the aircraft, clear crew resource management (CRM), continuous assessment, and critical thinking over blind adherence to procedures.
Conversely, tragedies like Air France 447 and Eastern Airlines L-1011 demonstrate that neglecting the fundamental "aviate first" principle, poor communication, loss of situational awareness, and fixation on minor issues can lead to catastrophic outcomes.
Key takeaways for handling unexpected crises include pre-flight visualization of emergencies, challenging assumptions, focusing on what's working, and rigorously managing risks to prevent minor problems from escalating into disaster.

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It was once believed that all swans were white. No one considered the possibility of black swans until a Dutch explorer discovered them in Australia in 1697. That is the nature of a Black Swan event: It’s rare, has an extreme impact and is predictable in retrospect.

Let’s examine three Black Swan events in aviation. There is much we can learn from how professional aviators handled, and mishandled, their black swans.