Black Swan Lessons

It was once believed that all swans were white. No one considered the possibility of black swans until a Dutch explorer discovered them in Australia in 1697. That is the nature of a Black Swan event: Its rare, has an extreme impact and is predictable in retrospect.

Fred Simonds

Sunday, October 08, 2017 at 12:00 AM ET

Verified

Key Takeaways:

Successful handling of "Black Swan" events in aviation, as demonstrated by Qantas 32, stems from strong crew resource management, clear leadership, proactive risk assessment, and prioritizing "aviating" (flying the aircraft) above all else.
Conversely, catastrophic failures like Air France 447 and the Eastern Airlines L-1011 crash resulted from a breakdown in crew communication and cooperation, pilot fixation on minor issues, and a fundamental failure to maintain control of the aircraft.
The key takeaway from these events is the critical importance of disciplined airmanship, continuous situational awareness, and the absolute necessity for pilots to always "fly the airplane" in any emergency, no matter how extreme.

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It was once believed that all swans were white. No one considered the possibility of black swans until a Dutch explorer discovered them in Australia in 1697. That is the nature of a Black Swan event: It’s rare, has an extreme impact and is predictable in retrospect.

Let’s examine three Black Swan events in aviation. There is much we can learn from how professional aviators handled, and mishandled, their black swans.