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The Lingering Mystery of ‘Undetermined Reasons’

When an accident’s cause is not easily found.

A Rutan VeriEze similar to the subject aircraft. Wikimedia
Gemini Sparkle

Key Takeaways:

  • The article explores the NTSB's "loss of control for undetermined reasons," using a 2007 VariEze crash as a prime example of such an unresolved incident.
  • Initial investigations focused on the aircraft's airbrake, but experts and the author concluded this was an unlikely cause for the pilot's loss of control.
  • The author hypothesizes a sudden loss of pitch control, potentially due to a mechanical failure in the VariEze's simplified control system, and critiques the NTSB report for a lack of clarity on the examination of non-cable control components.
  • Ultimately, despite theories and the pilot's panicked call for help, the precise reason for the crash remains officially undetermined due to a lack of material evidence.
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When the National Transportation Safety Board announces the probable cause of an accident, it often makes use of certain stock phrases. One of the most common is: “loss of control for undetermined reasons.”

Unlike “controlled flight into terrain,” which can often be traced to an incorrectly selected radio frequency or a sectional chart left behind, loss of control for undetermined reasons remains mysterious. These are not the loss-of-control accidents that result from icing encounters or from a non-instrument-rated pilot flying into IMC; in those cases, reasons can at least be plausibly guessed. Undetermined reasons really are undetermined.

Peter Garrison

Peter Garrison taught himself to use a slide rule and tin snips, built an airplane in his backyard, and flew it to Japan. He began contributing to FLYING in 1968, and he continues to share his columns, ""Technicalities"" and ""Aftermath,"" with FLYING readers.

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