Common Threads In Weather Accidents

In my view, there are four basic categories of aviation weather threats: low clouds and reduced visibility; turbulence and low-level wind shear; airframe ice; and thunderstorms (which may contain the three other hazards in one nasty package). When evaluating weather for a planned flight, I look at observations and forecasts with each of these specific hazards in mind: what is are the chances Ill encounter each threat and how bad will each be? How close to (or beyond) the limitations of the regulations, my capabilities and the airplanes performance would I be if I attempt the flight?

Tom Turner

Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 12:00 AM ET

Verified

Weather can be hazardous to airplanes. The real weather threat, however, is the way pilots approach weather-related go/no-go decisions.

Key Takeaways:

Aviation weather accidents are frequently caused by pilot decision-making flaws, including underestimating visible and invisible threats (e.g., wind shear, early-stage turbulence), overestimating personal or aircraft capabilities, and yielding to internal or external pressures and expectations.
Common pitfalls highlighted through accident examples include taking shortcuts, failing to adequately plan for short flights, trying to "get ahead" of weather, and proceeding despite a pilot's intuitive knowledge that they shouldn't.
Effective go/no-go decisions require objective evaluation of specific weather hazards against regulatory, personal, and aircraft limitations, with a strong emphasis on reducing exposure, setting realistic expectations, and maintaining discipline to avoid or escape dangerous situations.

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In my view, there are four basic categories of aviation weather threats: low clouds and reduced visibility; turbulence and low-level wind shear; airframe ice; and thunderstorms (which may contain the three other hazards in one nasty package). When evaluating weather for a planned flight, I look at observations and forecasts with each of these specific hazards in mind: what is are the chances I’ll encounter each threat and how bad will each be? How close to (or beyond) the limitations of the regulations, my capabilities and the airplane’s performance would I be if I attempt the flight?

Just as important, what can I do to reduce my exposure to the threat? Is it within my capabilities, or should I avoid it altogether? I’m not just looking at the weather briefing results; I’m quantifying each report and measuring each observation and forecast against objective go/no-go criteria. While developing a presentation on this overall topic, I looked for reports of weather-related aircraft accidents in my local area to use as examples. As I narrowed my search, I realized that these accidents contain some common threads. Recognizing the things these accidents share better enable you to make an objective go/no-go decision.