Icing Encounters

Flying this time of year means dodging a whole new set of hazards. Depending on where you fly, those hazards frequently include the dreaded ice.

Tim Vasquez

Friday, December 22, 2023 at 08:00 AM ET

Verified

This surface map shows a developing winter system on the Gulf Coast. (Tim Vasquez)

Key Takeaways:

Pilot Fred's rushed flight planning, overconfidence in his aircraft's de-icing capabilities, and reliance on simplistic weather interpretations led to an unexpected encounter with severe in-flight icing.
Severe icing conditions often result from complex atmospheric interactions, such as Warm and Cold Conveyor Belts, creating multiple subfreezing layers with supercooled water aloft that are not adequately represented by a single freezing level forecast.
A comprehensive understanding of the vertical thermal structure of the atmosphere, often revealed through detailed soundings, and obtaining thorough weather briefings are critical for accurately assessing and safely navigating complex winter weather.

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Let’s introduce you to Fred. He is a fictional pilot. Some say he is just “Fred”; others say he is a “Flight-Related Experimental Demonstrator” for Wx Smarts. Either way, he’ll help us experience flying through a real winter weather system across the southern U.S., guided by a veteran aviation weather forecaster. (That’d be me.)

Fred will fly his Baron 58 from Memphis Olive Branch (KOLV) Airport to Odessa (KODO) in West Texas to monitor some new oil leases on his family’s ranchland. A neighbor thinks the oilfield company was setting up on a field with no lease. Fred hopes to be done early so he can make it to the local BBQ place in Midland for brisket, then he’ll fly back to Memphis.