Black Swan Lessons

It was once believed that all swans were white. No one considered the possibility of black swans until a Dutch explorer discovered them in Australia in 1697. That is the nature of a Black Swan event: Its rare, has an extreme impact and is predictable in retrospect.

Fred Simonds

Sunday, October 08, 2017 at 12:00 AM ET

Verified

Key Takeaways:

Black Swan events are rare, high-impact incidents that, while retrospectively predictable, demand exceptional crisis management in aviation.
Successful handling of such events, exemplified by Qantas Flight 32, relies on clear crew resource management, proactive visualization, critical evaluation of procedures, and an unwavering focus on "flying the airplane."
In contrast, tragedies like Air France 447 and Eastern Airlines L-1011 highlight how failures in prioritizing flight control, maintaining situational awareness, and effective crew communication can escalate minor issues into catastrophic loss of control.

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It was once believed that all swans were white. No one considered the possibility of black swans until a Dutch explorer discovered them in Australia in 1697. That is the nature of a Black Swan event: It’s rare, has an extreme impact and is predictable in retrospect.

Let’s examine three Black Swan events in aviation. There is much we can learn from how professional aviators handled, and mishandled, their black swans.