Jets: Reaching the Service Ceiling

The jet market softened after a period of COVID-induced thrust.

Fred George

Saturday, February 03, 2024 at 08:00 AM ET

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Demand for Cirrus' single-engine SF50 Vision Jet remains strong. [Courtesy: Cirrus Aircraft]

Key Takeaways:

The business jet market is leveling off after a post-COVID boom, primarily due to persistent supply chain issues and FAA certification delays, rather than solely rising interest rates.
Competition remains strong across different jet segments, with models like the Cirrus Vision Jet and Embraer Phenom 300E demonstrating market leadership due to a combination of features, pricing, and strong product support.
The industry faces growing environmental pressure, particularly in Europe, from climate change activists, leading to potential regulatory threats despite business aviation's relatively small contribution to global CO2 emissions.
Achieving the industry's commitment to substantial CO2 emission reductions by 2050 hinges on the widespread adoption of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), which currently faces significant challenges in production scale and cost that require major government investment.

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The business jet market, paralleling the flight path of the general economy, is leveling off after two years of post-COVID soaring. The flattening is more pause than plateau, says Rolland Vincent, head of the market research and consultant company bearing his name in Plano, Texas.

“Nothing surprises me,” says Vincent. “We were on a sugar high in 2021 and 2022, fed by essentially free money. Now with middle single-digit loan rates, we’re getting back to a more normal market.”