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Rationalization

People wouldnt fly personal aircraft-or participate in many other activities-if there werent benefits. Thats human nature. Some benefits we seek by taking risks are intangible and hard to quantify. Others can be readily identified and weighted. Its a calculus we all employ daily in mundane ways. However, the problem isnt that we fail to assess benefits when we analyze risk. Instead, the issue is the inaccurate values we assign on both sides of the equation.

Gemini Sparkle

Key Takeaways:

  • Effective risk assessment should be a risk/benefit analysis that explicitly weighs the potential benefits against the risks involved.
  • The primary challenge in such analysis isn't the failure to consider benefits, but the human tendency to assign inaccurate values to both risks and benefits.
  • This inaccuracy often stems from rationalization, where individuals distort values, downplay risks, or overstate benefits to justify a desired outcome, even when using formal assessment tools.
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In a submission to our Unicom department on the opposite page, Jeff Schweitzer makes the point that risk “should only be taken when the potential benefit clearly exceeds the risk, and that cannot be known if half the equation is excluded from analysis.” In other words, to properly assess risk, we also have to balance the equation by calculating the benefits of taking that risk. It’s really a risk/benefit analysis instead. He’s not wrong.

People wouldn’t fly personal aircraft—or participate in many other activities—if there weren’t benefits. That’s human nature. Some benefits we seek by taking risks are intangible and hard to quantify. Others can be readily identified and weighted. It’s a calculus we all employ daily in mundane ways. However, the problem isn’t that we fail to assess benefits when we analyze risk. Instead, the issue is the inaccurate values we assign on both sides of the equation.

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