VLJ Myth May Cost Us All

J. Mac McClellan

Wednesday, June 14, 2006 at 08:00 AM ET

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Key Takeaways:

Aviation forecasting has a long history of inaccuracy, consistently missing both booms and busts in the industry, as exemplified by the post-WWII general aviation decline and the 1970s boom and subsequent collapse.
The current widespread prediction of a "very light jet (VLJ) air taxi boom" is largely a myth; VLJs will represent an evolutionary alternative rather than a revolutionary market driver that would produce thousands of new aircraft.
The FAA is using this unproven VLJ boom myth to justify a costly reorganization of the air traffic control system and implement user fees on general aviation, despite industry leaders challenging the unrealistic projections.
High aviation fuel prices are currently impacting general aviation activity, leading to a measurable decline in avgas sales, indicating that pilots are flying less to contain expenses.

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Forcasting future trends is difficult in any business, but predicting the direction aviation will move has been particularly inaccurate over the past many decades. Part of the problem is that aviation is fundamentally cyclical, both in the manufacture of airplanes and in their use. Changes in the economy appear to have more to do with aviation activity than any other factor, but that information is of little use since predicting the future of the global economy has also been elusive.

I think it’s safe to say that every prediction of a large change in aviation activity has been wrong. Forecasters have missed in both directions, calling for growth when a bust is about to arrive or failing to see recovery from a downturn.