Forcasting future trends is difficult in any business, but predicting the direction aviation will move has been particularly inaccurate over the past many decades. Part of the problem is that aviation is fundamentally cyclical, both in the manufacture of airplanes and in their use. Changes in the economy appear to have more to do with aviation activity than any other factor, but that information is of little use since predicting the future of the global economy has also been elusive.
I think it’s safe to say that every prediction of a large change in aviation activity has been wrong. Forecasters have missed in both directions, calling for growth when a bust is about to arrive or failing to see recovery from a downturn.
