If you’re like me, you subscribe to several aviation-related information sources, of which there are many genres. Some of the ones I pay attention to include brief quizzes plus scenarios designed for us to self-assess how risky a proposed operation might be. An example might be asking if you would take off in a VFR-only airplane under a 2000-foot ceiling with five miles of visibility for a 100-nm flight. Maybe the content offers an option to select a minimum ceiling or visibility that meet your criteria. There’s no “correct” answer to these quizzes; your response supposedly relates to how much risk you’ll accept. If only it was that simple.
A lot of scenario-based training is like this: What would you do in this situation? What if the flight was planned at night, or if there was mountainous terrain along the route? What if…? To me, the only real response is, “It depends.”
Weather is always a factor, of course, and the 2000-foot ceiling with five miles of visibility doesn’t tell me much. For example, is the ceiling broken or overcast? Is it composed of stratus clouds or cumulus? How high are the tops? What is limiting the visibility, rain, fog or something else? And what’s the destination weather?
If there are no mountains along the route, what about tall towers or the maximum elevation figure (MEF) on the sectional chart along the route? Are there divert airports along the way?
Is the airplane up to it, including whether it has enough fuel to get to the destination and maybe return to the departure airport if you have to? Is the GPS navigator’s database current? Have you even flown this particular airplane before?
One can easily load up the scenario with all kinds of “what ifs,” with the goal of making the proposed flight too complicated and/or too risky.
What scenarios like this frequently fail to offer are the options we have. For example, can I file IFR? Can I wait a couple of hours to see if the visibility picks up? Can I do this tomorrow, when everything will be better? Those are the kinds of questions we should be asking, and the only realistic response is, “It depends.”
