Brief Like a Weather Pro

Step into an aviation forecaster’s shoes and see how it’s done.

Tim Vasquez

Thursday, June 26, 2025 at 08:00 AM ET

Verified

Edited By:

Travis Tingle

The 300 millibar chart is used for hemispheric work at jet stream level. [Courtesy: AWIPS-II / Tim Vasquez]

Key Takeaways:

A systematic "forecast funnel" approach is used for aviation weather, starting with large-scale upper-air dynamics before moving to smaller-scale and surface features.
Upper-air charts, such as the 300 millibar (jet stream level) and 500 millibar (short waves), are crucial for identifying broad patterns like the polar vortex, subtropical ridge, and jet stream, which dictate major weather trends.
Surface charts are then integrated to analyze localized features like air masses, high and low-pressure systems, fronts, and phenomena like cold air damming, linking upper dynamics to surface weather.
This comprehensive forecasting process helps connect complex atmospheric elements to specific weather phenomena, aiding in the creation of Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) and enhancing pilot safety.

See a mistake? Contact us.

Since I began my column over 10 years ago in IFR Magazine, I’ve strived to write as though you’re with me in the weather operations center.

During most of my Air Force career, I worked as an aviation forecaster. For many years, this was a constant succession of four days on, three days off, with rotating shifts. After driving to work, we would begin a shift-change briefing. If this was in the morning, the entire weather station would participate. If it was evening, the events would be more relaxed, with just me and the outgoing forecaster reviewing things.