Brief Like a Weather Pro

Step into an aviation forecaster’s shoes and see how it’s done.

Tim Vasquez

Thursday, June 26, 2025 at 08:00 AM ET

Verified

Edited By:

Travis Tingle

The 300 millibar chart is used for hemispheric work at jet stream level. [Courtesy: AWIPS-II / Tim Vasquez]

Key Takeaways:

Aviation forecasting employs a "forecast funnel" method, starting with large-scale upper-air patterns, such as those found on the 300 millibar chart, to identify persistent features like the polar vortex, subtropical ridge, and jet streams.
Analyzing upper-air dynamics, including isoheights and jet stream characteristics (e.g., jet max, exit regions), is crucial as they provide the foundational framework that dictates surface weather systems and potential adverse conditions.
Forecasters then integrate surface chart analysis, examining air masses, fronts, and pressure systems, to understand local weather development, phenomena like cold air damming, and the potential for severe weather events.

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Since I began my column over 10 years ago in IFR Magazine, I’ve strived to write as though you’re with me in the weather operations center.

During most of my Air Force career, I worked as an aviation forecaster. For many years, this was a constant succession of four days on, three days off, with rotating shifts. After driving to work, we would begin a shift-change briefing. If this was in the morning, the entire weather station would participate. If it was evening, the events would be more relaxed, with just me and the outgoing forecaster reviewing things.