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Airline Pilot Shortage?

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Key Takeaways:

  • The perceived "pilot shortage" is primarily a lack of individuals willing to accept the demanding schedules, challenging working conditions, and relatively low initial compensation compared to the significant training investment required.
  • High training costs, coupled with initial low pay and the rapid movement of pilots from regional to major carriers, create a persistent supply issue for regional airlines.
  • The cyclical nature of the airline industry, risks like losing medical certification, and loss of seniority due to mergers suggest that the airline pilot career may not be as appealing or financially rewarding as it once was, contributing to the supply-demand tension.
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While I write this, Southwest Airlines is losing a public relations battle over the thousands of canceled flights it racked up at the end of December 2022. The airline’s labor and management disagree about the underlying causes of the carrier’s inability to launch airplanes, and handle loading and unloading of luggage, but the worst aviation job in December was in customer service at Southwest.

Although the airline’s problems seem to be systemic and deep—and not safety related, though the final chapter hasn’t been written—one thing they seem have little to do with is a shortage of pilots. Which may or may not be the case at other carriers. In fact, an airline pilot shortage is like bad weather: it comes and goes, and it seems no one ever does anything about it. Another thing: The airline business is cyclical, and no one ever does anything about that, either.

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