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Airline Pilot Shortage?

Gemini Sparkle

Key Takeaways:

  • The author contends that the perceived airline pilot shortage isn't due to a lack of qualified individuals, but rather a scarcity of people willing to accept the demanding job's significant drawbacks.
  • These drawbacks include rigorous schedules, unpleasant conditions, high training costs (often exceeding $100k) with slow returns, and relatively low initial compensation, particularly at regional carriers.
  • The underlying tension in pilot supply is rooted in the cyclical upheavals, seniority system issues, management decisions, and risks like losing medical certification, which collectively make the airline pilot career potentially less appealing than other options.
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While I write this, Southwest Airlines is losing a public relations battle over the thousands of canceled flights it racked up at the end of December 2022. The airline’s labor and management disagree about the underlying causes of the carrier’s inability to launch airplanes, and handle loading and unloading of luggage, but the worst aviation job in December was in customer service at Southwest.

Although the airline’s problems seem to be systemic and deep—and not safety related, though the final chapter hasn’t been written—one thing they seem have little to do with is a shortage of pilots. Which may or may not be the case at other carriers. In fact, an airline pilot shortage is like bad weather: it comes and goes, and it seems no one ever does anything about it. Another thing: The airline business is cyclical, and no one ever does anything about that, either.

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