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Airline Pilot Shortage?

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Key Takeaways:

  • The author argues there isn't a shortage of qualified pilots, but rather a lack of individuals willing to accept the rigorous schedule, challenging conditions, and low initial compensation of the job.
  • Pilots face substantial training costs (e.g., $100,000+) but are offered relatively low starting pay, particularly by regional carriers, leading to quick departures for major airlines once experience is gained.
  • The airline industry's cyclical nature, coupled with issues like loss of seniority from mergers, risk of losing medical certification, and demanding lifestyle, may make an airline pilot career less attractive than commonly believed.
  • The recent Southwest Airlines operational failures highlighted deep, systemic issues within carriers, suggesting problems extend beyond a simple lack of pilots.
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While I write this, Southwest Airlines is losing a public relations battle over the thousands of canceled flights it racked up at the end of December 2022. The airline’s labor and management disagree about the underlying causes of the carrier’s inability to launch airplanes, and handle loading and unloading of luggage, but the worst aviation job in December was in customer service at Southwest.

Although the airline’s problems seem to be systemic and deep—and not safety related, though the final chapter hasn’t been written—one thing they seem have little to do with is a shortage of pilots. Which may or may not be the case at other carriers. In fact, an airline pilot shortage is like bad weather: it comes and goes, and it seems no one ever does anything about it. Another thing: The airline business is cyclical, and no one ever does anything about that, either.

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