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What Comes Next?

There are many issues at play as legislators tackle the ATC privatization debate. Mark Brouwer/Creative Commons
Gemini Sparkle

Key Takeaways:

  • The aviation industry faces a multi-year recovery despite vaccine developments, with virtual events becoming a lasting feature, especially for smaller gatherings.
  • While business jet and turboprop deliveries were down, piston aircraft shipments saw an encouraging rebound driven by flight school activity, pointing to a future general aviation sector defined by electric aircraft, automation, and new market creation.
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As this issue was being finalized in early December, it was hard to avoid general-media stories about forthcoming Covid-19 vaccines. While the pandemic’s end may not be around the corner, it seems there’s at least a road map to such a goal, even if it might take most of 2021 to reach it. Since I’ve used this space over the last several months to detail some of the aviation industry upheavals we’ve all experienced because of the pandemic, it’s time to speculate on what it may look like in the near term. As Yogi Berra famously said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

One thing comes immediately to mind: Virtual aviation events have become a thing, and likely will continue. For example, the National Business Aviation Association just concluded its first VBACE—Virtual Business Aviation Convention and Exhibition—and seems to have pulled it off. It’s too soon to gauge reaction, or for any decisions on future virtual events of the same scale, but other organizations will have to make a choice soon. While I and thousands of my closest friends are looking forward to once again attending fly-in events like Sun ‘n Fun and AirVenture, it’s likely the market for smaller virtual events will continue, even with full recognition they really aren’t a substitute for the in-person experience.

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