“What’s it doing now?” If you haven’t said or thought it in the cockpit, you’ve almost certainly heard it from someone else. The question often has to do with new technology in the cockpit or automation not doing what you think it should. With more and more advanced systems—particularly with regards to navigation—expectation bias is a problem that can easily cause pilot deviations, or worse. Screens and automated systems are only one aspect of flying where expectation bias can bite you. It can rear its ugly head nearly any time you fly, whether commercial or GA, IFR or VFR.
Expectation Bias Can Cause Incidents—or Worse
Key Takeaways:
- Expectation bias, where pilots assume events will unfold as anticipated without preparing for changes, is a significant risk in aviation that can lead to pilot deviations and accidents.
- This bias affects pilots of all experience levels and is prevalent across various scenarios, including automation use, interpreting ATC clearances, managing weather changes, and executing complex instrument procedures.
- To counteract expectation bias, pilots must diligently "verify, not trust" critical information such as runways, clearances, charts, and automation settings, and always be prepared for contingencies like adverse weather, equipment failures, or missed approaches.
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