Embraer Predicts Market Growth Through 2040

Company offers slightly optimistic projections; a “deceleration” compared to pre-COVID growth.

Thom Patterson

Monday, November 15, 2021 at 09:23 PM ET

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Overall global passenger volume will return to 2019 levels by 2024, the report said. Embraer

Key Takeaways:

Embraer's 20-year market report forecasts global passenger volume will recover to 2019 levels by 2024, with revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) growing 3.3 percent annually through 2040.
Future aviation demand will be primarily influenced by three key trends: environmental pressures (fuel-efficient fleets, sustainable fuels), digitalization (remote work impacting travel patterns), and regionalization (localized supply chains).
The outlook predicts a demand for 10,900 new aircraft (up to 150 seats) valued at $650 billion by 2040, with Asia Pacific projected to lead regional RPK growth and new turboprop deliveries.

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Embraer’s (NYSE: ERJ) 20-year market report released Monday offered optimistic growth predictions in passenger revenue amid an aviation industry increasingly influenced by environmental, digital, and regional pressures.

The report, titled “20-year Market Outlook,” forecasts commercial aircraft deliveries through 2040 for new jets and turboprops with capacity up to 150 seats. Overall global passenger volume will return to 2019 levels by 2024, the report said.