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The Human Factor: Wishful Thinking

Gemini Sparkle

Key Takeaways:

  • Pressure can lead pilots to dangerous wishful thinking, causing them to prioritize desired outcomes over objective data and even disregard contradictory evidence.
  • Fatigue significantly exacerbates the effects of pressure, impairing judgment and clear thinking, thus increasing the likelihood of critical decision-making errors.
  • A corporate jet crash serves as a stark example, where a combination of pressure, fatigue (due to inadequate sleep and medication misuse), and wishful thinking led an experienced crew to ignore severe weather warnings and make fatal decisions.
  • Pilots bear the critical responsibility to manage their own fatigue and recognize how it, combined with pressure, can compromise their judgment and lead to deadly outcomes.
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(August 2011) At the end of my previous article I wrote that “pressure is at the heart of most accidents.” As I read through the final proof copy of that article, it struck me that there is more to the story than that. Even though pressure seems to be a significant factor in many accidents, there are plenty of pilots who experience intense pressure during a flight but don’t give in to that pressure. Pressure isn’t really a problem unless we let it affect our reasoning and decision making. People who are feeling a lot of pressure may resort to wishful thinking, analyzing the situation according to what they would like the outcome to be rather than carefully assessing available data and considering potential consequences of all courses of action. Sometimes the person is merely biased toward the desired solution, but in extreme cases the person’s brain may actually block evidence contrary to the desired outcome. This can easily lead to decisions that would make no sense to someone analyzing the available information without any pressure influencing judgment.

There is another factor that can greatly increase the likelihood of this happening — fatigue. People who are tired are not going to be able to think as clearly as when they are fresh and well rested. Thinking takes an amazing amount of energy, especially in a critical situation when a decision must be made under pressure without all the necessary or desired information. In that kind of situation, it is very easy for fatigued people simply to give in and take the path toward the outcome they most desire, hoping that “everything will work out OK.”

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