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How Pilots Predict Severe Turbulence

Severe turbulence events are rare, but they do happen.

Wednesday, May 29, 2024 at 04:18 PM ET

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Edited By: tccjeremy

Inside the cockpit of a Boeing 737 Max. [Credit: AirlineGeeks | Fabian Behr]

Key Takeaways:

Pilots predict turbulence by identifying convective activity (vertically developed clouds, heavy rain) and mountain waves, which indicate unstable air.
Key prediction tools include NOAA's Aviation Weather Center forecasts, inflight advisories like AIRMETs and critical Convective SIGMETs, third-party apps, and real-time pilot reports (PIREPs).
"Clear air turbulence" is unpredictable by radar and can occur suddenly, emphasizing the importance of keeping seatbelts fastened at all times, although severe events remain rare.

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Following the Singapore Airlines severe turbulence encounter last week, many are concerned about other potential events in the future.

Significant turbulence events are not particularly uncommon – a Hawaiian Airlines flight made headlines last year, and a Southwest flight was forced to divert due to turbulence earlier this spring – but the Singapore Airlines flight brought the first turbulence-related fatality in years.

John McDermott is a student at Northwestern University. He is also a student pilot with hopes of flying for the airlines. A self-proclaimed ""avgeek,"" John will rave about aviation at length to whoever will listen, and he is keen to call out any airplane he sees, whether or not anyone around him cares about flying at all. John previously worked as a Journalist and Editor-In-Chief at Aeronautics Online Aviation News and Media. In his spare time, John enjoys running, photography, and watching planes approach Chicago O'Hare from over Lake Michigan.