Flying the Margins: How One Pilot's Choices Stacked the Odds

Sometimes it’s not worth finding out if normal aviation variability will exceed your capabilities.

Max Trescott

Thursday, April 10, 2025 at 08:00 AM ET

Verified

Edited By:

Travis Tingle

A solid strategy when en route with poor weather everywhere is to divert early to someplace where the conditions are good. [Adobe Stock]

Key Takeaways:

A fatal Cirrus SR22 accident in challenging weather highlighted the impact of a pilot's choice to fly an ILS approach over a more suitable RNAV approach.
Multiple "normal aviation variabilities" compounded the danger, including low visibility, inoperative approach lights, and an ILS restriction requiring manual flight during the critical final 600 feet.
Choosing the RNAV approach would have allowed full autopilot engagement, simplifying the approach and enabling a safer missed approach (e.g., using the TOGA button and underspeed protection in the Cirrus), potentially preventing the likely stall.
The incident underscores the importance of proactive aeronautical decision-making, such as diverting to an airport with significantly better weather or delaying a trip when conditions are marginal.

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Last month I wrote about my preference for RNAV approaches versus ILSs in most but not all situations. Earlier this year there was a fatal accident in a Cirrus SR22 in Bar Harbor, Maine, in which the pilot’s choice of an ILS versus an RNAV approach had a direct impact on the outcome.

In his book Pre-Accident Investigations, safety expert Todd Conklin wrote that “aviation accidents are the unexpected combination of normal aviation variability.” In this accident, if some variables were different, there could have been a more positive outcome. Instead, as you’ll see, the challenges this pilot faced kept stacking up.