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Flying the Margins: How One Pilot’s Choices Stacked the Odds

Sometimes it’s not worth finding out if normal aviation variability will exceed your capabilities.

A solid strategy when en route with poor weather everywhere is to divert early to someplace where the conditions are good. [Adobe Stock]
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Key Takeaways:

  • A fatal Cirrus SR22 accident in Bar Harbor was influenced by the pilot's decision to fly an ILS approach instead of an RNAV (GPS) approach, despite both having similar minimums.
  • The ILS approach required hand-flying the final 600 feet, which, combined with challenging weather (low ceilings, mist, inoperable approach lights), stacked "normal aviation variabilities" against the pilot.
  • It is theorized the pilot likely stalled during a hand-flown missed approach; this outcome could have been mitigated by using the RNAV approach with full autopilot engagement and its underspeed protection system.
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Last month I wrote about my preference for RNAV approaches versus ILSs in most but not all situations. Earlier this year there was a fatal accident in a Cirrus SR22 in Bar Harbor, Maine, in which the pilot’s choice of an ILS versus an RNAV approach had a direct impact on the outcome. 

In his book Pre-Accident Investigations, safety expert Todd Conklin wrote that “aviation accidents are the unexpected combination of normal aviation variability.” In this accident, if some variables were different, there could have been a more positive outcome. Instead, as you’ll see, the challenges this pilot faced kept stacking up. 

Max Trescott

Max Trescott is the host of the Aviation News Talk podcast, which focuses on GA and safety. He’s the author of Max Trescott’s G1000 and Perspective Glass Cockpit Handbook and another book on the G3000. He was inducted into NAFI’s Flight Instructor Hall of Fame in 2026 and earned the 2008 National CFI of the Year.

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