Aftermath: Stowaway

Peter Garrison

Saturday, February 05, 2011 at 03:09 AM ET

Verified

Key Takeaways:

A mysterious plane crash in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which killed 20 people, was reportedly caused by a crocodile escaping from a bag, leading passengers to stampede to the front of the aircraft.
Despite initial skepticism and alternative theories like fuel starvation or sabotage, the author performs an aeronautical analysis of the L-410 Turbolet's weight and balance.
The analysis calculates that 2,000 pounds of passengers moving 10 feet forward would shift the aircraft's center of gravity by 20 inches, significantly impacting its stability.
The author concludes that this forward weight shift, particularly with flaps deployed for landing, would likely exceed the horizontal tail's ability to maintain control, making the seemingly bizarre crocodile-induced crash scenario technically plausible.

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Last October the French magazine Jeune Afrique reported that the cause of the mysterious crash of a twin-turboprop L-410 Turbolet at Bandundu, Democratic Republic of Congo, on Aug. 25 had been revealed. According to the sole human survivor of the accident, a crocodile concealed in a “sports bag” stored at the back of the cabin escaped as the airplane was approaching Bandundu for landing. Terrified passengers, fleeing the reptile, crowded to the front of the airplane, throwing it off balance and causing the crew to lose control.

Tim Atkinson, an accident investigator in the United Kingdom, was quoted as remarking, “I would say it’s extremely unlikely this story holds water, but I wouldn’t rule it out completely.”