Eyeballs & the Seat of Your Pants:A huge factor in dealing with weather is what you see and feel. No FAA products or electronics here, just a pilot, an airplane, a proposed flight and the sky. It starts at home (or at the motel) before the flight. What do the clouds look like? Are they angry in appearance? Are the low-level clouds racing by? What is the surface wind velocity and direction? Is it raining like pouring Pepsi out of a boot? Is it cold out? Certainly that first look at the local conditions defines what you should be looking for in the products available for study before takeoff. No way to know, but I would be willing to bet that of the many airplanes we lose in bad weather every year, the pilot had some misgivings from the start, from his first look out the window before the flight. I would also bet that those misgivings increased as the various products were studied. If it was a VFR flight, things only went downhill after takeoff, as the pilot studied the weather out the windshield. If it was an IFR flight, the increase in misgivings came with the sting of wind shear or convective turbulence, or of heavy rain on the windshield, or of a view of absolutely nothing at the decision altitude on an approach.