Ten-year forecasts are often more a reflection of current conditions than realistic predictors of future activity. As an example, this year’s Honeywell market outlook for the coming decade calls for deliveries of up to 11,000 new business jets by 2019. But last year’s 10-year forecast envisioned 17,000 deliveries. Still, the Honeywell forecast is one that polls actual business jet operators for their views on when they might be buying new aircraft, so there is a measure of realism to the outlook. One clear indicator in this year’s forecast is where the airplanes will be going in the next 10 years. Honeywell expects traditional markets in North America and Latin America to remain soft. But the company sees growing demand in Europe, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. Recent overtures by China to loosen its grip on airport and airspace restrictions have business aviation advocates optimistic that China might begin to deliver on some of its hoped-for potential as a business aviation market. By any measure, the 1,313 business jet deliveries last year will make this year – and almost certainly next year, too – look bad. Honeywell sees a maximum of 800 deliveries in 2009 and fewer than 700 in 2010. After that, however, the company sees gradual ramping up by 2012 as a result of pent-up demand.
Honeywell Forecast Points to Non-traditional Markets
