After tentative predictions in recent years that the business jet market was showing signs of turning the corner after a prolonged slump, Honeywell says it’s much more confident in its latest business aviation market forecast that “strong” growth is just around the corner, and, barring unforeseen events, will continue for the next several years.
Honeywell’s 27th annual Business Aviation Global Outlook released yesterday calls for sales of 7,700 new business jets valued at $251 billion from 2019 through 2028, an increase of nearly 2 percent over the 2017 survey.
Improving global economic conditions are a major reason why sales of new jets are expected to start rising next year, as are higher prices for late-model used jets and the introduction of several new business jet models that are driving interest among corporations and the very wealthy.
As for the current year, sales of new jets in 2018 are expected to be flat or down slightly compared with 2017 due primarily to the delayed entry into service of some new jets. Next year, however, is predicted to see a sharp uptick as delivery numbers transition to high single-digit growth for the first time since the 2008 global recession.
With world economic growth predicted to stay above 3 percent for at least the next five years, business jet buyers are confident that they will be purchasing new jets as they seek to replace older models that lack the performance, comfort and technological advancements of the latest products. Honeywell surveyed more than 1,575 corporate flight departments that operate 4,400 business jets, finding that operators in North America and Europe plan to accelerate fleet replacement plans in the next five years while other regions show slight declines.
Large cabin models will be the preferred aircraft of these buyers as 62 percent of all jets sold in the next five years will fit this category, representing a full 87 percent of dollar expenditures. Honeywell counts large cabin models as those with selling prices of $20 million or higher, corresponding to super-midsize and larger jets.
