Deliveries of approximately 620-640 new jets in 2017, a decline of roughly 30 aircraft year over year. The pullback comes on the heels of a moderate decrease in 2016 and is largely due to slower order rates for mature airplane models and a transition to new models slated for late 2017 and 2018.
Operators plan to make new jet purchases equivalent to about 19 percent of their fleets over the next five years as replacements or additions to their current fleet, a decrease of 8 percentage points compared with the 2016 survey results.
Of the total purchase plans for new business jets, 19 percent are intended to occur by the end of 2018, while 17 percent and 14 percent are scheduled for 2019 and 2020, respectively.
Operators continue to focus on larger-cabin aircraft classes, ranging from the super mid-size through ultralong range, which are expected to account for more than 85 percent of all expenditures on new business jets in the next five years.
The longer-range forecast through 2027 projects a 3-4 percent average annual growth rate despite the lower short-term outlook as new models and projected improved economic performance will contribute to industry growth.
Declines in five-year operator purchase plans are offset in the long-term forecast by new programs entering service, improved economic performance and higher commodity prices, resulting in only a small decline in the overall outlook.