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Know the Surface Winds

By Stephen Pope / Published: Feb 05, 2013
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Intellicast WindCast

WINDcast

Strong surface winds can throw pilots an unexpected curve ball if they’ve planned a flight to a favorite destination and find the conditions at the arrival airport exceed the capabilities of their airplane, themselves or both.
 
An experienced flight instructor I was talking with recently related a story in which he damaged the wing of an Aeronca Champ on landing while ferrying the airplane from a customer’s summer home in New England to his winter home in Florida. The instructor knew the surface winds at one of his intermediate fuel stops would be quite strong, but he figured he had the requisite skill to handle the conditions. He was wrong — and ended up footing the bill for the repair while also suffering a bruise to his ego.
 
In this instance, the pilot knew the forecast wind conditions and decided to press on anyway. In a lot of cases, though, pilots are taken by surprise by stronger than expected winds at the destination or, just as likely, at their home airport at the end of the return flight.
 
If the airport has multiple runways, crosswind considerations might not be a big concern. If the destination airport has only a single runway and the wind is blowing a gale across it, you’ll have no choice but to divert. You should know the maximum crosswind component you can accept before ever leaving the ground in the first place.
 
There are lots of online resources for determining current and forecast surface wind conditions. One of my favorites is the WindCast tool from Intellicast.com. This website lets you select your region and then page through current and forecast conditions spaced in three-hour windows for the next 48-hour forecast period.
 
Color-coding makes it easy to spot wind trends and compare what you thought the wind should be doing versus what the WindCast model shows. In my experience, Intellicast’s surface wind forecasts are as good as they get. Try it for yourself and see if you agree.

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skymachines's picture

Sorta...right now, it's 7pm Eastern on Thursday and the farthest out Intellicast Windcast goes is 8am EST Saturday. So not exactly 24 hours.

There are better tools/models for long-term:
ADDS: http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/winds/
GFS http://www.weather.gov/mdl/forecast/graphics/MAV/MAV.SKNT_000.html
NAM http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/graphics/MET/MET.SKNT_000.html
GFSx http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/graphics/MEX/MEX.MWSPK12_000.html
^Different models have different opinions.

Finally, the National Weather Service produces graphs for each of its forecasts points, which go out a lot longer than 48 hrs. Here's one for my airport: http://goo.gl/gD4ZL
To get yours, go to http://www.weather.gov/ and type in either a 4-letter Airport ID, or a city, state. You'll get the NWS forecast page for that location. About 2/3 down on the right-hand column is the Hourly Weather Graph. Click it. Then adjust the date and time. It goes out at least 5 days and includes a lot more than wind.

And here are more short-term tools that may give a second opinion when times get closer: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF_avia/FCST/NARRE/web_site/html/wind...
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/Welcome.cgi

Plus, there are airport forecasts (incl. ceiling, vis) which are available for a lot of airports that don't have TAFs and do go out at least 48 hours:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/gfslamp/meteoform.php
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/avnmosmap.php

Now, you talking Intellicast, I like their Humidicast. Where the humdity is high in the day, bad weather is likely. Where it's low, good weather is likely. So it's a great "first look" type of tool.
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Humidity/HUMIDITYcast.aspx

There are SO MANY tools out there that the FAA considers supplemental weather information; it's a shame more pilots don't use them.

skymachines's picture

I meant the Intellicast doesn't go out 48 hours all the time...not 24 hours

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